Climate change and the outlook for the marsh lily (Hedychium coronarium): a look at future habitat suitability João Pedro Santos Duarte, João Henrique Alliprandini da Costa

Abstract

Predictions and models about climate change differ in distinct scenarios, which are used as tools for visualizing the suitability of habitat in the future, especially invasive species. This article addresses the modeling of the future habitat suitability of the invasive species Hedychium coronarium in South America, under the influence of climate change. For habitat suitability modeling, data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), WordClim and environmental variables from the RCP 8.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used, thus generating an "Ensemble" model, generating suitability maps for the current and future scenario. The results obtained suggest that new areas can be invaded by H. coronarium in the future, since in the future model, there was an increase in habitat suitability for the areas of the current scenario, however there is an increase in new habitable areas, mainly in the Amazon region, which may be affected in the future, highlighting the need for prior management for the invasion of H. coronarium.