EVALUATION OF LOCAL SCALE HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS FOR SEA LEVEL FORECASTING IN SANTOS BAY AND WITHIN THE ESTUARY

Abstract

Climate change has intensified extreme events in Santos Bay, such as high waves and storm surges. This study conducts a comparative analysis of three local numerical models for sea level prediction in the Santos Bay: Mohid, Delft3D, and ADCIRC. The objective was to evaluate the accuracy of each model in simulating sea level, as well as astronomical and meteorological tides, using data from 2023. Statistical metrics such as Bias, RMSE, Willmott Skill Score, and correlation were applied. The results show that all models perform well in predicting sea level in the Santos Bay and the interior of the estuary, with Willmott values above 0.94 and RMSE below 0.21 m. Based on the obtained results, it is concluded that the models have good capability to predict and simulate sea level variations in the Santos Bay and the interior of the estuary, with the Delft3D model standing out for its greater agreement with observed data, presenting lower errors and higher correlation.

Keywords: Numerical models; sea level; Santos Bay.