Decoding the future habitat suitability of Megalops atlanticus in light of rare occurrences in southeastern Brazil João Henrique Alliprandini da Costa, Alexandre Rodrigues, Flávia F. Petean

Abstract

The present study investigated the habitat suitability of the species Megalops atlanticus in South America under different climatic scenarios. The species, classified as vulnerable and sporadic in southeastern Brazil, had its distribution mapped through records in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and environmental variables obtained from Bio-Oracle. Using the Maximum Entropy Algorithm (Maxent), the study revealed high habitat suitability in the north of the continent and southeastern Brazi. Niche overlap with current model was high in both climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), suggesting little change for the species based on the variables considered, reinforcing the hypothesis that occurrences in southeastern Brazil are probably individual dispersals and not an established population.