Exploratory data analysis and general linear model fit to historical temperature and precipitation data for the southern agricultural region of Chapada Diamantina National Park, Bahia, Brazil Rodrigo de Oliveira Campos, Ana Maria Heuminski de Ávila, Thiago Santos Silva, Miguel Petrere Jr.

Abstract

Climate change has been in evidence around the world in recent years. Variations in rainfall and temperature patterns directly influence agricultural production practices. Impacts may depend on location, scale of production and adaptive customary practices. Historical series of data, referring to the period between 1961 and 2022, were analyzed for four different agricultural sites in the southern region of Chapada Diamantina, Bahia. The average precipitation per locality varied between 1.97 mm/day and 2.39 mm/day (n=22645). The daily maximum temperature observed by location in the period was between 13.70°C and 37.49 °C (n=21762), while the daily minimum was between 4.23°C and 23.72°C (n=21762). The application of the analysis of covariance to the annual mean maximum temperature data indicated that, adjusted for the effect of passing years, there were significant differences between the investigated locations. The maximum temperature increase rate over the years (0.0261°C/year) was positive and highly significant, indicating local warming.