Demand Forecast Study Based on Quantitative Techniques for Seasonal Demands Ana Claudia Nascimento Santos, Gerson Prando, José Carlos Morilla

Abstract

Due to the critical conflict of organizations aiming to obtain a competitive advantage and taking into account financial matters, knowing that excess inventory means financial loss, as lack of stock signifies loss of sales, the demand forecast is critical to strategic management in a company's supply chain. The article aims to identify the uniqueness of the models of Classical Decomposition and Holt-Winters for the application in seasonal demands with the purpose of a more appropriate selection of the demand prediction method, and for this a comparative study and an analysis of the applications of the two models were carried out. It was concluded that the models can be applied together, after identifying the seasonal pattern for the additive or multiplicative versions of each model, as well as updating their applications to become more assertive.